Every other screen here reports what arrived. This one also draws what would have arrived if you had left everything alone — day by day, behind the clicks you actually got. The gap between the two is not a prediction that came true or failed: it is the measured size of the change you made.
Thirty days of one workspace, on the curve where this reading lives — there is no Forecast screen, because a counterfactual is a claim about a number rather than a number of its own. The band behind the paid clicks is what the twenty-eight days before this window said these thirty would look like. The curve tracks it for a Saturday and a Sunday, and then a campaign is paused on the Monday; everything after that is the size of the pause, in clicks a day. Past the rule at now the same band continues, refitted on the fortnight since, with nothing beside it yet to check it against.
The headline is one quantity — the gap, in clicks a day — and both terms it is made of are printed under it: what arrived, and what was expected from the day the window opens. A lone expected figure shows no residual, and the residual is the feature. The figure is inked apart from every other number on the screen for one reason: it is the only one that was modelled rather than observed.
Behind the band, two dashed hairlines — the tenth and the ninetieth percentile of the same twenty-eight days. Arithmetic over days that actually happened, not a model, so it can disagree with the band. Here it does: the observation sits inside the usual range and well under the counterfactual. One says the site has been this quiet before; the other says this is not where it was heading. Both are true, and no screen picks between them for you.
The solid rule is today. Left of it, every expectation has a curve beside it to be checked against; right of it there is nothing yet, so the pointer reads nothing there — a popover over a forward day would print a count that has not happened. And the curve’s last day is today, still running: the figures compare whole days only, because a part-day against a whole day’s expectation manufactures a shortfall every morning.
The obvious feature is a number for next month, and it would demo well. We can’t make it honestly: this product watches clicks arrive on your site and never sees your spend, your bids or your campaign state, so a figure about the future would be a promise about a budget we cannot see. What we can say is narrower and worth more — what your traffic would have kept doing if you had left it alone. Pause a campaign and the forecast becomes wrong; the wrongness, in clicks a day, is the size of what you did. Read as a prediction that is a failure. Read as a counterfactual it is the measurement, and nothing else in your stack reports it: the platform tells you what you spent, not what the site would have received.
So: nothing at identity grain — no “this visitor will return”, no score on a browser or an address, which is the inferred identity this product exists in order not to sell. No predictive column in a directory: a table cell has no room for an interval, and campaign rows are small enough that the interval would come out wider than the value. No conversion forecast until that series stops narrating our own instrumentation history back to you as your performance. No segments, no propensity scores. And no grade on the result — “below its usual range”, the plausible causes, and you judge.
When it cannot say anything, it says which silence it is. Not enough history yet comes with the day it arrives — from Sep 8, never “soon” — and draws a mark that sits still rather than pulsing, because pulsing means on its way. A month that ran past its event allowance yields nothing at all: fitting on the clamped read would teach the model your billing cliff as if it were a traffic pattern, and fitting on the whole month would draw a band above a clamped curve, which is a paywall telling you exactly what it is holding back. Two silences that looked alike would be worse than either.
A counterfactual is fitted on the twenty-eight days before the window you are looking at, and that fit has to fit inside the window your plan can query. Free reads seven days, so on the free plan this reading never opens: the card draws your paid clicks as usual and says Beyond your plan’s window where the figure would be. Nothing is blurred there, because nothing was computed — a shorter fit would be a worse model wearing the same interval, so it is refused rather than quietly shortened. Solo reads ninety-two days, which holds the fit in front of any window up to sixty-four, every preset in the picker included. That is how far back you can look, not how long we keep it: every event you send is kept on every plan, including the free one.
Free plan, no credit card, no trial timer. Install in under 5 minutes — drop a script, load a page, and watch your first observations arrive.
Start free→